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Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump. In a Wall Street Journal battleground poll taken in March, Mr. Biden had only 37 percent job approval in the state. … orand The second and harder path for Mr. Trump would be if he carried only one Southern swing state – most likely North Carolina. By carrying these states, Mr. Biden has several paths to 270, but the first three scenarios are his most viable. Scenario 4 They involve Mr. Biden winning Georgia and Arizona … They involve Mr. Biden winningand Scenario 5 … or Michigan and Georgia.
Persons: Biden, Akshita Chandra, Yuji Sakai, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden’s, Court’s, … orand, Hamas’s, Mr, , , Bill Clinton’s, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton Organizations: Presidency, Trump, New York Times, Electoral, Wisconsin –, Sun, Siena, Black, The Arizona, Michigan, Mr, North Carolina, Republicans, Georgia, Democrats, Congressional District, Michigan …, Wisconsin, Democratic, House Locations: Arizona, – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Mich, Pa, Nev, N.C, Ariz . Ga, Wis, Ariz ., Michigan, Arizona , Michigan, Arizona , Nevada, Israel, Gaza, Nebraska, Minnesota, United States, Michigan , Pennsylvania
Donald Trump has added something new to the practice of extracting money from major donors: fear. Trump has also talked of prosecuting officials at the F.B.I. In public, Trump has vowed to appoint a special prosecutor to “go after” President Biden and his family. Trump has claimed without evidence that the criminal charges he is facing — a total of 88 across four state and federal indictments — were made up to damage him politically. Trump has made “retribution” a central theme of his campaign, seeking to intertwine his own legal defense with a call for payback against perceived slights and offenses to “forgotten” Americans.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump’s, Trump, John F, Kelly, William P, Barr, Ty Cobb, Mark, , ” President Biden, Organizations: House, The Washington Post, Justice Department, Joint Chiefs,
Together, these organizations are constructing a detailed postelection agenda, lining up prospective appointees and backing Trump in his legal battles. Most of the work performed by these nonprofit groups is conducted behind closed doors. Unlike traditional political organizations, these groups do not disclose their donors and must reveal only minimal information on expenditures. In many cases, even this minimal information will not be available until after the 2024 election. Nonprofits like these are able to maintain a cloak of secrecy by positioning themselves as charitable organizations under section 501(c)(3) of the tax code or as social welfare organizations under section 501(c)(4).
Persons: Donald Trump, MAGA, Trump
Pope McCorkle, a Democratic consultant and professor at Duke’s Sanford School of Public Policy, argued in an email that the results of this year’s Republican primary election on March 5 demonstrate that “the North Carolina G.O.P. is now a MAGA party. With the gubernatorial nomination of Mark Robinson, the N.C. G.O.P. is clearly in the running for the most MAGA party in the nation.”As they are elsewhere, MAGA leaders in North Carolina are confrontational. In February 2018, Robinson, the first Black lieutenant governor of the state, described on Facebook his view of survivors of school shootings who then publicly call for gun control.
Persons: Trump’s, Pope McCorkle, MAGA, Mark Robinson, Robinson, Organizations: Democratic, Duke’s Sanford School of Public, Republican, North Carolina G.O.P, Facebook Locations: North Carolina, G.O.P
While the Supreme Court ruling on Monday that states cannot bar Donald Trump from appearing on their presidential ballots garnered a lot of attention, the more politically consequential decision came on Feb. 28, when the court set a hearing on Trump’s claim of presidential immunity for the week of April 22. That delay is both a devastating blow to the Biden campaign and a major assist to Trump’s multipronged effort to minimize attention to the details of the 91 felony charges against him. It increases the likelihood that neither of the two federal indictments against Trump will come to trial before the November election. A failure to hold at least one of these trials before Nov. 5 would undermine a key Democratic goal: to expand voters’ awareness of the dangers posed by a second Trump term. Those trials, should they occur, are very likely to produce a flood of daily headlines and television broadcasts describing Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection and his sequestering of classified government documents in his Mar-a-Lago home — a media onslaught reminiscent of the Senate Watergate hearings, which stretched out over 51 days in 1973.
Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, Trump’s Organizations: Trump
One of the major reasons white non-college voters turned to Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 is the fear of lost white hegemony — that the United States will become a majority-minority nation sometime in the near future. Almost simultaneously, however, the decisively majority-minority work force will be providing the bulk of the revenue going toward Social Security and Medicare. In other words, the payroll taxes collected from a majority-minority population will be sustaining the white working class men and women who are still alive by midcentury, dependent on those two programs for half their retirement income and for a large share of their medical costs. The evolving role of minorities in the domestic economy is just one example of the profound role births, deaths and rates of immigration play in shaping the balance of power between red and blue America.
Persons: Donald Trump Organizations: Social Security Locations: United States, America
A chorus of political analysts on the center left is once again arguing that the Democratic Party must reclaim a significant share of racially and culturally conservative white working-class voters if it is to regain majority status. “For Victory in 2024, Democrats Must Win Back the Working Class,” Will Marshall, the founder and president of the Progressive Policy Institute, wrote in October 2023. “Can Democrats Win Back the Working Class?” Jared Abbott and Fred DeVeaux of the Center for Working-Class Politics asked in June 2023; “Democrats Need Biden to Appeal to Working-Class Voters” is how David Byler, the former Washington Post data columnist put it that same month. First, is the Democratic attempt to recapture white working class voters a fool’s errand? Is this constituency irrevocably committed to the Republican Party — deaf to the appeal of a Democratic Party it sees as committed to racial and cultural liberalism?
Persons: John B, Judis, Ruy Teixeira, Will Marshall, Jared Abbott, Fred DeVeaux, Biden, David Byler Organizations: Democratic Party, Progressive Policy Institute, , Center, Washington Post, Democratic, Republican Party
What does President Biden have to do to catch up to Donald Trump? Unless the media and other trusted nonpartisan civil society institutions are forthright in affirming that the 2024 election is not a contest between two politicians, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but a virtual constitutional referendum, Trump could win. The most recent NBC News poll, conducted at the end of January, has Trump favored over Biden by a substantial 47-42 percent. Six of these states — all but North Carolina — voted for Biden in 2020. Trump now leads Biden in all seven of them.
Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Michael Podhorzer, Podhorzer, Joe Biden, Trump, MAGA, , Carolina — Organizations: AFL, NBC, Trump, Biden, Voters, Republican, Democratic, Bloomberg, Carolina Locations: Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, California, New York, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania
In a bid to weaken Donald Trump’s domination of the immigration crisis going into the 2024 election, President Biden has reversed his position and adopted a high-risk strategy. Trump, acutely aware of the critical importance of immigration to his campaign, is determined to block Biden’s border security proposal, now under negotiation in the Senate. Trump, of course, wants to make sure that the “crisis at the border” remains foremost in the minds of voters through Election Day. “A Border Deal now would be another Gift to the Radical Left Democrats,” Trump declared in a post on Jan. 25 on Truth Social. “They need it politically, but don’t care about our Border.”
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Biden, Trump, ” Trump Organizations: Times, Trump, Senate, Radical Left Democrats, Truth Locations: United States
Opinion | We Are Normalizing Trump. Again.
  + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Over the past nine years, Donald Trump has been variously described as narcissistic, mendacious, authoritarian, unbalanced, ignorant, incompetent, egotistical and racist — as someone who demonizes minorities and fans ethnic hostility. These assessments are a major reason roughly half of American voters, according to polls, say they will not vote for him. But even as Trump has steadily escalated his defiance of behavioral norms, a substantial share of the American electorate remains willing to cast a ballot for him. Approximately half of the electorate views Trump as a legitimate 2024 presidential contender, repeatedly demonstrating in surveys that they plan to vote for him in a matchup with President Biden. Followers granting political legitimacy to Trump go well beyond his hard core MAGA supporters.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, MAGA Locations: U.S
On Oct. 15, 2020, in a rare display of humility, Donald Trump told a campaign rally in Greenville, N.C., that he was not as famous as Jesus Christ. “Somebody said to me the other day ‘You’re the most famous person in the world by far.’ I said, ‘No, I’m not.’ They said, ‘Yes, you are. I said no.’ They said, ‘Who’s more famous?’ I said, ‘Jesus Christ.’ ”This exhibition of modesty was out of character. Trump, his family and his supporters have been more than willing to claim that Trump is ordained by God for a special mission, to restore America as a Christian nation. In recent weeks, for example, the former president posted a video called “God Made Trump” on Truth Social that was produced by a conservative media group technically independent of the Trump campaign.
Persons: Donald Trump, Christ, “ Somebody, , , ‘ Jesus Christ, Trump, God Locations: Greenville, N.C, America
Opinion | Fearful of Trump’s Autocratic Ambitions
  + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
It is imperative that all Americans actively promote and support democracy against threats both foreign and domestic. Donald Trump is so unhinged and delusional that nothing would stop him from denying the election results once again and trying to stop Congress from certifying the results. This issue should be front and center as one of too-many-to-count reasons that this man should be stopped! Robin KroopnickBranford, Conn.To the Editor:Re “The Roots of Trump’s Rage,” by Thomas B. Edsall (Opinion guest essay, nytimes.com, Nov. 22):What’s the point of analyzing Donald Trump’s psyche to find out why he seethes with hate? It’s far more important to understand just why that hate finds ready purchase among such a large swath of the electorate.
Persons: James H, Donald Trump, Robin Kroopnick Branford, Thomas B, Donald, Trump Organizations: Mills Cumberland, CNN, Republican Locations: Mills Cumberland Center , Maine, Conn
I asked her whether No Labels should be required to register as a political party. If No Labels fields candidates, it should register as a political party. It has the basic structure of a modern electoral organization, with leaders, data and campaign analysts, fund-raisers, and volunteers. A No Labels candidate, Kuo continued:will likely serve as a spoiler in what is shaping up to be a very tight race between President Biden and former President Trump. Given where No Labels is trying to position itself on the partisan spectrum, it is very likely that its candidate would draw votes from President Biden, rather than Donald Trump — with grave consequences for American democracy.
Persons: Kuo, Biden, Trump, Donald Trump, Seth Masket, Fred Wertheimer, , , Wertheimer, Gary Jacobson, Nancy Jacobson Organizations: University of Denver, Democracy, University of California, Trump, Trump’s Locations: Arizona , Wisconsin, Georgia, San Diego
I asked some of those who first warned about the dangers Trump poses what their views are now. At times it seems as if he cannot control himself or his hateful speech. We need to wonder if these are the precursors of a major deterioration in his character defenses. In recent months, Trump has continued to add to the portrait Glass paints of him. At the California Republican Convention on Sept. 29, Trump told the gathering that under his administration shoplifters will be subject to extrajudicial execution: “We will immediately stop all the pillaging and theft.
Persons: Leonard L, Glass, Trump, Hitler, remorseless Trump, ” Trump, Joe Biden, Trump’s, Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey, Devlin Barrett, John F, Kelly, William P, Barr, Ty Cobb, Mark, Organizations: Harvard Medical School, Democrats, California Republican, Claremont, White, The Washington Post, Justice Department, Joint Chiefs Locations: Waco , Texas, California, Claremont N.H, America, The
What do the strikingly different public responses to two recent Supreme Court rulings, one on abortion, the other on affirmative action, suggest about the future prospects for the liberal agenda? Last year’s Dobbs decision — overturning the longstanding precedent set by Roe v. Wade in 1973 — angered both moderate and liberal voters, providing crucial momentum for Democratic candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, as well as in elections earlier this month. Since Dobbs, there have been seven abortion referendums, including in red states like Ohio, Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. In contrast, the Supreme Court decision in June that ended race-based affirmative action in college admissions provoked a more modest outcry, and it played little, if any, role on Election Day 2023. As public interest fades, so too do the headlines and media attention generally.
Persons: Dobbs, Roe, Wade, Organizations: Democratic Locations: Ohio , Kansas , Kentucky, Montana
These young voters faulted Israel’s response to the attacks, 52-32 percent. This wartime shift represents a fundamental break within a liberal coalition that has long powered the Democratic Party. Clearly, the most left-leaning young adults have the lowest rating of Israel. The Arab American Institute commissioned John Zogby Strategies to conduct a survey of 500 Arab Americans between Oct. 23 and Oct. 27. In this poll, 32 percent of Arab Americans identified as Republican as opposed to just 23 percent who identified as Democrats.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Gallup, Jennifer Medina, Lisa Lerer, Benjamin Netanyahu, Bruce Cain, nonwhite, Cain, Siena, Hillary, , Norman Ornstein, ” Ornstein, Ornstein, Liz Skalka, Daniel Marans, Akbar Shahid Ahmed, , Robbie Gramer, ” Gramer, ’ Gramer, ” Amy Mackinnon, Gramer, Antony Blinken, ” Yossi Hasson, Maya Tamir, Kea, Brahms, J, Christopher Cohrs, Eran Halperin, Niloufar Zebarjadi, Eliyahu Adler, Annika Kluge, Mikko Sams, Jonathan Levy, Zebarjadi, Jeremy Konyndyk, Harris, ” Laura Royden, Eitan Hersh, ” “, Hersh, Israel favorability, Young, John Zogby, Zogby, Farah Pandith, Pandith, , Trump, Julie Wronski, Wronski, Stephen Ansolabehere Organizations: Quinnipiac University Poll, Biden, Democratic, West Bank, Democratic Party, Stanford, American Enterprise Institute, Democratic National Committee, State Department, U.S, USAID, United States Agency for International Development, Foreign, Liberals, Aalto University, USAID’s, U.S . Foreign, Politico, U.S ., Harvard, , Israel, Young American Left, Tufts, Republicans, U.S.A, , Arab American Institute, American, Council, Foreign Relations, University of Mississippi Locations: Israel, Gaza, Medina, United States, Washington, Palestinian, , Finland, Russia, Ukraine, U.S, Palestine, Michigan, America
Mike Johnson is the first person to become speaker of the House who can be fairly described as a Christian nationalist, a major development in America history in and of itself. Equally important, however, his ascension reflects the strength of white evangelical voters in the House Republican caucus, voters who are determined to use the power of government to roll back the civil rights, women’s rights and sexual revolutions. “If anything, it shows us that white evangelicals still have a very strong hold on the modern Republican Party. In the 1970s, mainline Protestants dominated at 46 percent, compared with evangelical Protestants at 24 percent and Catholics at 19 percent. By the decade of the 2010s, evangelical Protestants were a commanding 38 percent of Republicans, mainline Protestants had fallen to 17 percent and Catholics had grown to 25 percent.
Persons: Mike Johnson, “ Johnson, ” Ryan Burge, , ” Burge Organizations: Republican, Eastern Illinois University, American Baptist Church, Republican Party Locations: America, United States
The Jordan campaign for speaker may turn into a liability for Republican members in districts won by Biden in 2020. Jim Jordan is a radical election denier who does not represent the values of this district and Tom Kean Jr. should be ashamed of his vote. I asked Michael Olson, a political scientist at Washington University in St. Louis, about the possible costs of a Jordan vote for these 12 Republicans in Democratic-leaning seats. Republican respondents, however, are more approving of a conservative Republican representative and less approving of a representative who voted to impeach Trump. As a result, I doubt this one vote will be as consequential as something like voting to impeach Trump.”
Persons: Jordan, Fitzpatrick, Ashley Ehasz, Brian Fitzpatrick, Sue Altman, Kean, Tom Kean Jr, , Jim Jordan, Michael Olson, Louis, Olson, Geoffrey Sheagley, Logan Dancey, John Henderson, Donald Trump, Henderson, Trump, Dancey, isn’t, Darcey, “ Jordan, Organizations: Biden, Democratic, New, Families Alliance, Republican Party, Washington University, Republicans, Republican, Wesleyan, Democrat, Trump Locations: New Jersey, St, Dancey
As the parties have grown racially, religiously, and socially distant from one another, a new kind of social discord has been growing. The increasing political divide has allowed political, public, electoral, and national norms to be broken with little to no consequence. Institutions that empower partisan minorities can become instruments of minority rule. And they are especially dangerous when they are in the hands of extremist or antidemocratic partisan minorities. Its political system spreads power out very broadly, in ways that give many individual players the power to stop things.
Persons: Lilliana Mason, Johns Hopkins, Trump, , Steven Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt, “ Vetocracy, ” Francis Fukuyama, Stanford’s, Fukuyama, ” Fukuyama Organizations: American, Harvard, Constitution, Global, Politics Today, Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, House Republicans Locations: America, U.S
I recently sent out a list of questions about the 2024 elections to political operatives, pollsters and political scientists. How damaging would a government shutdown be to Donald Trump and the Republican Party? Will the cultural left wing of the Democratic Party undermine the party’s prospects? How significant will Black and Hispanic shifts to the Republican Party be and where will these shifts have the potential to determine the outcome? Robert M. Stein, a political scientist at Rice, responded to my question about MAGA turnout by email: “Turnout among MAGA supporters may be less important than how many MAGA voters there are in the 2024 election and in which states they are.”
Persons: Donald Trump, Will, MAGA, Biden, Will Kamala Harris’s, hasn’t Biden, Democratic Party “, , Robert M, Stein, Rice Organizations: Republican Party, Democratic Party, Biden, MAGA Locations: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona , Michigan, Wisconsin
In this context, many partisan elites have political incentives to take, or at least refrain from pushing back on, relatively extreme partisan positions. Those I queried repeatedly cited the role of the two-party winner-take-all system in exacerbating polarization in this country. Iyengar cited two other “big differences between the U.S. and the other industrialized democracies”:The U.S. is the outlier, in the sense that we are the one case without a major public broadcaster. In other words, our democracy has always been contested and political polarization has often been intense. Foner shares the view that the two-party system fosters polarization, noting that “it may even be that the political system produces polarization, even though on many issues Americans may not be as divided as appears on the surface.”
Persons: , Malka, Shanto Iyengar, Iyengar, , ” Eric Foner, , Foner Organizations: Stanford, Coalition, U.S Locations: United States, Covid, U.S, , Norway, Sweden, Germany, Japan, Columbia
Opinion | A Hidden Reason Cities Fall Apart
  + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
And this has been a self-perpetuating process in which the fortunate metros have gained the most while many places are left behind. This used to happen all the time in Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis, the Twin Cities, etc.”These locally based firms. Atkinson continued, “played an important role of helping the various municipalities in a region work more closely together. The only way to grow their banks or electric utilities was to grow the community where they were based. Their job is to sit on local boards and dabble in community relations, but they don’t really call the shots anymore.
Persons: Mark Muro, Muro, Robert D, Atkinson, Louis, , ” Aaron M, Renn, Frank A Organizations: Brookings, , metros, Information Technology, Innovation Foundation, Twin, American, “ Civic, Baltimore News American, Maryland Locations: Detroit , Cleveland, St, Twin Cities, Banks, Dallas
One of the underlying issues in the free speech debate is the unequal distribution of power. Frymer suggested that ultimatelyWe can’t consider free speech without at least some understanding of power. We can’t assume in all contexts that the truth will ever come out; unregulated speech does not mean free speech. The framing in the current debate over free speech and the First Amendment, Post contends, is dangerously off-kilter. Post makes the case that there is “a widespread tendency to conceptualize the problem as one of free speech.
Persons: Steven Pinker, Biden, , , Paul Frymer, Frymer, I’m, Robert C, Post Organizations: Harvard, Freedom, University, Republicans, Washington Post, Trump, Yale Locations: , Princeton
Opinion | Small Donors Are a Big Problem
  + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
One of the most important developments driving political polarization over the past two decades is the growth in small-dollar contributions. Increasing the share of campaign pledges from modest donors has long been a goal of campaign-finance reformers, but it turns out that small donors hold far more ideologically extreme views than those of the average voter. In their 2022 paper, “Small Campaign Donors,” four economists, Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte and Vincent Pons, document the striking increase in low dollar ($200 or less), campaign contributions in recent years. Bouton and his colleagues found that the total number of individuals grew from 5.2 million in 2006 to 195.0 million in 2020. Over the same period, the average size of contributions fell from $292.10 to $59.70.
Persons: Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte, Vincent Pons, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Bouton Organizations: White
DeSantis saying he’s going to start “slitting throats” reminded me of Romney’s “severely conservative.” While DeSantis’s is a dangerous escalation of violent imagery, they both sound bizarre and unnatural. At a more fundamental level, Bateman wrote:It’s not at all clear that what most Republican voters (rather than donors) want is a mainstream and party credentialed version of Trump. The problem with this approach, Ayres continued, is that “the Always Trump voters are ‘Always Trump’ for a reason — they are not going to settle for the second-best Trump if they can get the real thing.”Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster, wrote:There is no room for DeSantis or anyone else to outflank Trump on the right, where Trump has his most loyal base. Candidates can argue that Trump is insufficiently conservative on some issues, but that it not the point for Trump loyalists. Candidates can try to echo the ugliness of Trump’s rhetoric, but that too misses what really draws these voters to Trump.
Persons: Trump, Romney’s “, Bateman, It’s, Trump’s, ” David O, Sears, , Archie Bunker, Whit Ayres, Republican pollster, DeSantis, RFK Jr, Ayres, Geoff Garin, MAGA, Frances Lee, ” Lee, Organizations: Yale, Harvard, Trump, Republican, Derby, Wimbledon, NPR, Ivy League, for Disease Control, Democratic, Trump loyalists, Republicans Locations: Ukraine, Princeton
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